Tuesday, December 14,2004, 06:25PM EST
Current Record on Our Closed Positions
(Our Disclaimer - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results)
| Complete Trading History... Exactly 22547 Trades Completed Trading statistics since The Short Term Stock Selector inception: 4/11/96 through 12/14/04 Definition: ROI = Return On Investment | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our neural network rates its picks "A", "B", "C", "D" or "E" before positions are opened. Theoretically, "A" picks have the highest probability of success and "E" picks the lowest. | "A" Picks... Annual ROI = 46% | "B" Picks... Annual ROI = 7% | "C" Picks... Annual ROI = 4% | "D" Picks... Annual ROI = 3% | "E" Picks... Annual ROI = 2% | |||||
| Trades | % | Trades | % | Trades | % | Trades | % | Trades | % | |
| Winners | 5663 | 67% | 1864 | 63% | 1901 | 63.3% | 1891 | 64% | 3268 | 63.2% |
| Losers | 2694 | 31.9% | 1056 | 35.7% | 1078 | 35.9% | 1029 | 34.8% | 1848 | 35.7% |
| Broke Even | 100 | 1.2% | 39 | 1.3% | 22 | 0.7% | 36 | 1.2% | 58 | 1.1% |
| Totals | 8457 | 100% | 2959 | 100% | 3001 | 100% | 2956 | 100% | 5174 | 100% |
| The Last 52 Weeks "A" Picks vs. S&P 500 trading statistics for the last 52 weeks: 12/15/03 through 12/14/04 | ||||||||||
| "A" Picks Annual ROI = 22.63% | S&P 500 Annual ROI = 12.67% | |||||||||
| Number of "A" Trades: 1191 Average Profit per Trade: 0.598% Average Holding Period: 7.365 Market Days | S&P 500 close on 12/15/03: 1068.04 S&P 500 close on 12/14/04: 1203.38 | |||||||||
Question. I would like to know what your neural networks think about this particular stock, SHAW GROUP (NYSE:SGR).The Short Answer - Sorry, we can't help you on this question.
The Long Answer - This is a very special question because the answer reveals deep insight into what our system is all about.Though our neural nets consider many factors associated with a particular stock they don't really come up with an opinion about the stock. Our neural nets come up with an opinion about how the stock will trade in the short term.
Only about one investor out of a thousand has ever thought about a statement such as the above. Even after they read it most investors will not see much difference between an opinion about a stock and an opinion on how it will trade. This is what makes The Short Term Stock Selector unique and different from other stock selection services. It is also why the Annual Return On Investment (ROI) on our "A" picks is so high. Our neural networks do not evaluate stocks, they evaluate potential trades. A great stock like Intel can be ready to take a minor downturn. Twenty analysts will most probably have a STRONG BUY rating on it and it will still take the downturn. A weak stock like Bethlehem Steel can be ready to make a small gain. Twenty analysts will have a SELL rating on it and it will still make a small gain. Furthermore, our neural networks only evaluate potential trades at very specific points in time. Also, the universe of stocks in the database they screen is limited by design and SHAW GROUP (NYSE:SGR) isn't in their universe. One gets the impression that our system is pretty darn picky and not very versatile, one would be right.
Hopefully, you might one day send me an email like the following which I received from Chris Blair. Chris has used our system for many years. FYI, before 7/26/1997 we only posted "A" picks on the website. We now post "A" through "E" picks to confuse the issue so we can charge for our premium service The Early Bird Club...
I've been using your service since the very early days (way before "A-E" picks) and have found it to be the best of it's kind on the net. Like many, I use your service in concert with other techniques I've gotten comfortable with and have consistently out-performed the market. I may have actually been better off just doing what you recommend but I'm quite happy with the results anyway. I especially like the "studies" you present on the historical recommendations. The most recent data on how the nets fair and the number of times the stocks are recommended is extremely valuable to me.Many of our Early Birds, like Chris, are extremely sophisticated. They use our extensive Trade History to develop their own stock screens and proprietary indicators to improve their trading performance. On the other hand, most of our subscribers are average investors who find the system easy to follow and use.Anyway, as a long term user of The Short Term Stock Selector I remain a very happy subscriber. Keep up the great work!
Many who comment about the subject matter on our site call it fascinating. If you spend the time evaluating it maybe you'll think so also.
Best regards,
Robert Hesler
Webmaster/Neural Network Designer